Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,482,416$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(3.94 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,275,170.2}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 158.4)}}\) (asimptote \(10,275,170.2\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $171,821$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(3.51 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(64.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{152,506.3}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 61.7)}}\) (asimptote \(152,506.3\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,412,436$ on 2020-08-18
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $531,239$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(1.98 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{656,553.9}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 119.8)}}\) (asimptote \(656,553.9\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $57,774$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(3.06 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{63,885.6}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 102.0)}}\) (asimptote \(63,885.6\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $39,656$ on 2020-08-18
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $82,790$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(2.59 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{120,546.7}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 138.4)}}\) (asimptote \(120,546.7\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,809$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(56.1 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,226.5}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 168.4)}}\) (asimptote \(4,226.5\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $23,790$ on 2020-08-18
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $125,084$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(2.88 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(69.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{114,866.1}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 60.3)}}\) (asimptote \(114,866.1\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,090$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(2.41 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(68.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,878.9}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 54.4)}}\) (asimptote \(8,878.9\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,902$ on 2020-08-18
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $51,670$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(1.24 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{57,701.6}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 116.8)}}\) (asimptote \(57,701.6\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,593$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(44.8 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,486.9}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 127.9)}}\) (asimptote \(2,486.9\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $42,416$ on 2020-08-18
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $87,123$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(2.94 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{176,834.9}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 156.3)}}\) (asimptote \(176,834.9\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,489$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(149 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,763.4}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 149.8)}}\) (asimptote \(2,763.4\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $30,130$ on 2020-08-18
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $63,847$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(1.11 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{76,568.1}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 121.1)}}\) (asimptote \(76,568.1\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,419$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(64 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,698.0}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 103.5)}}\) (asimptote \(2,698.0\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $9,058$ on 2020-08-18
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $23,462$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(401 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39,954.1}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 137.4)}}\) (asimptote \(39,954.1\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $625$ on 2020-08-18
Best fit exponential: \(11 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{831.5}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 119.3)}}\) (asimptote \(831.5\))
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $11,658$ on 2020-08-18
